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Francis Glassborow wrote:
> In article <X5fOe.178$dw4.134@newssvr29.news.prodigy.net>,
> John Nagle <nagle@animats.com> writes

    [...]
> I think all your data demonstrates is that some languages
> become so important to some communities that they are willing
> to fund ongoing work. If I were a betting man, I would lay
> good odds that C++ will still be around and under continued
> development in 2020.

I think that Plauger hit the nail on the head when he pointed
out that averages don't mean much when there is a strong
variance.  Note that in some African countries, the "average"
lifespan is something like 45; the difference, when compared to
North America or Europe, isn't that a lot of people die in their
fourties; the difference is that there are a lot more infant
deaths -- if half of the population dies in their first year,
and the other half lives to 90, that makes an average of 45.

I suspect that there is a similar phenomenon in programming
languages.  Some languages fail to attain a critical volume of
code, and for all intents and purposes die.  Once the critical
volume is reached (e.g. the case of Fortran or Cobol), however,
the language effectively lives forever.  (At least in name --
modern Fortran has very little resemblance to Fortran IV.)  In
the case of C++, I don't think that there is any doubt that the
critical volume has been reached.

The case of C is an interesting one.  There, too, I don't think
that there can be any doubt that the critical volume was
reached.  If C dies, it will basically be because C++ has been
able to subsume it -- the C compatibility of C++ means that much
C code is almost C++ code, migrating it to C++ (and thus
reducing the effective volume) is affordable.  So C could
conceivably be an exception to the above.

--
James Kanze                                           GABI Software
Conseils en informatique orient�e objet/
                   Beratung in objektorientierter Datenverarbeitung
9 place S�mard, 78210 St.-Cyr-l'�cole, France, +33 (0)1 30 23 00 34


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